In part 1 of my look into how the new NCAA eligibility rules will impact prep, I considered the new rule from the angle of reclassifying.
Since Division 1 college programs are recruiting fewer players in their incoming classes, there is an incentive to be older and more experienced before entering college. But there is also the drawback of potentially losing a fifth year of competition under the five-year eligibility window that starts in the academic year immediately after one's 19th birthday.
But that brings us to the next piece of that question. What about post-graduates?
Most prep coaches seem to agree that the sheer number of players who reclassify in prep might not really change too much. But they suggested that there could be an increase in post-graduates.
“It’s still somewhat new, and it’s still a few months in here. But I have found a little bit of an uptick in post-grad interest,” said Choate head coach Ethan McDonnell. “Whether that’s from colleges now recruiting ‘27s and telling them we’ll take you in the ‘28 class, or families hedging for another opportunity or looking to use a spring and another summer for recruiting purposes.”
This plays into the backlog that is taking place at the college level. If programs are taking fewer freshmen, the recruiting timeline essentially trickles down to each grade in prep. Sophomores on the bubble might not get looked at until their junior year, and some juniors may not get opportunities until their senior year. A post-graduate year could become valuable.
“With smaller classes at the highest levels, potentially there might be a trickle-down effect where more kids are looking for a post-graduate year based off not receiving the recruitment that they wanted to,” said Loomis Chaffee head coach Bill Ball. “But I think that’s still to be determined.”
There is risk to being an uncommitted post-graduate, though.
“Just in terms of the smaller class sizes and classes filling up quicker, there will be less attractive options as an uncommitted post-grad that there may have been when (teams) were waiting to fill a spot and seeing how people developed,” said Avon Old Farms head coach Taylor Pirie. “I think college coaches just may not be willing to wait as long for that anymore.”
And of course, there comes the other risk of potentially losing out on a fifth year of college eligibility if a player turns 19 before Sept. 1 of their post-graduate year in prep. But prep coaches stressed that a fifth year isn't necessary for every player and their goals of what they want to achieve out of their college experience.
“If they’re stuck between two kids, and one of them is a true ‘28, and they definitely have five years, then I think they would go with that if it’s a coin flip," said Tabor Academy head coach Connor Gordon. "But I don’t think that part has really affected it too much. I just think it’s the kids who would normally be a Patriot League guy or a Big Ten player are now going down to lower-level Division 1 just because they’re taking seven to eight guys instead of 12 to 14.”
What else are prep coaches noticing?
The Ivy League schools made a splash.
So far, local Ivy programs have pushed the pace, with local teams like Brown (10), Dartmouth (eight) and Yale (six) committing a lot of ‘28s early in the window.
Meanwhile, some ACC programs are still building their class. Duke and Notre Dame have only committed four ‘28s each, for example.
Our live commitment tracker showed this trend, too. Of the 37 players who committed entering Monday, 19 of them were to Ivy League schools. College coaches hinted at this before the window opened. Because Ivy League schools don’t allow post-graduate players, these programs could become a de facto fifth-year feeder to ACC teams. The draw of getting a four-year Ivy League education and playing a fifth year at a top ACC program is appealing.
“It just seems that, especially the top schools, are going to try to get those fifth-year transfers in from what seems like a lot of Ivy Leagues,” Gordon said.
But on the flip side, that could create more uncertainty for players who are already at those ACC or Big Ten destinations. So far, Pirie has seen a lot of five-year scholarship offers at non-Ivy League schools for the ‘28s. But that’s certainly an area to keep an eye on.
“I do wonder, do coaches start to say you’re a four-year guy or you’re a five-year guy for us as they recruit you? I think those bigger schools understand that all of these Ivy League guys are going to have that fifth year,” Pirie said.
As part of this overarching trickle-down effect, Pirie has also targeted a potential position that might be impacted the most over the next few recruiting cycles.
“The people that are most affected by this are the goalies, the faceoff guys and even the defensive middies,” Pirie said. “Those specialty positions.”
There were already fewer of those positions recruited to begin with, but those players could be recruited every other year instead of on a yearly basis now that there’s an extra class. But don’t be mistaken. Goalies, faceoff specialists, and defensive midfielders are the positions that win championships in prep.
“You certainly can’t win without a good goalie and a good faceoff guy,” Pirie said. “I think that’s still the biggest thing that causes nightmares for coaches in our league: do we have a goalie and do we have a faceoff guy? And if the answer to either of those questions is no, you’re not very optimistic about your year.”
But as more players get overlooked in the recruiting process, Gordon said NESCAC schools are going to get “very good, very fast.” He also isn’t ruling out more action in the transfer portal from Division 3 to Division 1.
“I think some kids will go under the radar, go to a really good Division 3 school, light it up for two years, and then a lot of the Division 1 schools will see that he can play at that level,” Gordon said.
All of this is to say that the impacts of this five-year eligibility rule implemented by the NCAA are expected to cast a wide net. But it’s important to note that the effects are playing out in real time. That only means many of these questions will only be answered with time.
“As every college coach has told me, they’re still trying to figure it out,” Pirie said. “That means that we’re still trying to figure it out.”
