February 14, 2012
Statistics don't always add up
Don't overlook the real story in the numbers
by Chuck Jaffe/
When it comes to numbers in lacrosse, there are, as Mark Twain once noted, “lies, damned lies and statistics.”
That struck me as New England Lacrosse Journal got into season previews, which are all about numbers that purportedly say who are the best, most impressive players.
Statistics are one of the few measuring sticks that can size up individuals by digging deeper than won-lost records, but they’re flawed.
You may want to believe that numbers never lie, but there’s no denying that they often paint a distorted picture, making some players look better than they really are, and others worse. Coaches, parents, players and the media frequently focus on the numbers and miss the real story.
For proof, let’s look at Twain’s three categories and see what part of the scoresheet they apply to.
Lies
The big lie in lacrosse is “assists,” which are so frequently tallied based on hope, hype or “being nice,” that they’ve lost much of their meaning.
Rules for assists — from the actual statisticians’ manuals for the game — are virtually identical in men’s and women’s field lacrosse. They’re more similar to basketball than hockey, in that there can be no more than one assist on any scoring play, and an assist is not necessarily credited to a player who makes a pass before a goal. Flipping the ball to a teammate who dodges through the defense to score doesn’t count; there should be “conscious effort on the part of the passer to find an open player for a shot or to help a player work free for a shot.”
The problem is that most scorekeepers and coaches — particularly at the high school level — rely on the “know it when I see it” method, without ever reading the stats manual. The resulting numbers are based on misconceptions, misinformation and myth; sometimes, they reflect a coach “rewarding” the feeder, or a statistician who is friendly with players.
Functionally, the passer must feed a teammate who “has maneuvered for a good or more-advantageous position to take a shot” provided that the shooter — after receiving the ball — does not have to “outrun or maneuver around any excessive defensive pressure” before scoring.The key determinant — aside from the required score — is the pressure the shooter evades to get the shot off.Consistency is the problem. A scorekeeper who gives easy assists has players with impressive numbers, which makes a difference in deciding postseason honors.
There’s no way to say what a true assists-to-goals ratio should be; it depends on everything from the offense being run, to the skill of the players, to the strengths/weaknesses of the goalies. Each game is different.
The good news is that assists — properly credited or not — don’t show up on the scoreboard.
Damned lies
The easiest stat to keep honestly — the one everyone puts the most stock in — is also the most misleading: goals.
The numbers add up, but the actions behind the equation sometimes say more than the stats.
For example, the high school midfielder — now committed to a top college program — who netted 55 goals last year, but got half in four games against teams ranked in Massachusetts’ bottom 10 on LaxPower, and just two in four games against teams in the top 20. The stats say “All-Scholastic,” the back story says “misleading numbers.”
Players can make a reputation with huge numbers, or they could be a ball hog. I saw one game last year — a 23-19 track meet that was close throughout — where the winners needed all 10 goals delivered by their leading scorer. I saw many games where “stars” had seven or more goals in a blowout, but subs weren’t even allowed to go to the net.
No matter how inflated or, at times, unsportsmanlike, big numbers are impressive. Small numbers — even when it’s the coach holding down scores or playing everyone and allowingssubs their moments of glory — are “disappointing.” It will be ever thus.
That’s sad, because the best players earn their stats and reputation simply by playing big in big games.
Statistics
As a goalie and goalie coach, my least favorite number is save percentage, because it doesn’t tell the story it purports to.
Saves are not like free throws in basketball, where every shot is the same. Each save is unique; a ball shot into a goalie’s stick is a lot easier to stop than a bounce shot through a screen off their weakside hip. Save percentage is an individual statistic that reflects team play. A poor defense surrenders more shots — and more difficult shots — than a great defense that forces hurried, off-balance heaves from the outside. The goalie is responsible for stopping them all, but stats don’t tell the real story. As a coach, I evaluate goalies on a points system, giving bonus points for tough saves, negative points for blown saves and nothing for routine stuff; you’d be amazed how often goalies with great save percentages aren’t as solid as opponents whose numbers are worse.
Nowhere is save percentage more misleading than in comparing men’s and women’s lacrosse. Top male goalies stop about 60 percent of shots faced, while top women keepers are lucky to be above 50 percent. The common perception is that men shoot harder and faster, but the goalies are quicker and somehow more fearless; the reality is that hard outside shots often make for easier saves; girls goalies don’t face many because the rules virtually force attackers to shoot at point-blank range, where everything is tougher to stop. Girls also can face what amounts to multiple penalty shots in a game, something boys don’t have to worry about
In short, the difference in save percentage by gender isn’t about skill as much as about variations in rules dictating the shots faced
The moral of the story is that, while stats are fun to look at and talk about, the truth comes out in games; the best players always look better on the field than they do on paper.
This article originally appeared in the February 2012 issue of New England Lacrosse Journal.
Chuck Jaffe is the editor of New England Lacrosse Journal. He is a longtime youth and high school coach and official, and currently runs BullsEye Lacrosse. He can be reached at editor@laxjournal.com
